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U.S. House · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Texas House, district 37
Greg Casar (Democrat, incumbent) against Lauren Peña (Republican).
Where they stand · 91 points apart
Peña is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Greg CasarrecordLauren Peñaestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCasar$1.4MPeña$130kItemized, named donorsCasar$717kPeña$22kNamed donorsCasar731Peña70Itemized from TexasCasar53%Peña58%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“THIS IS OUR FIGHT. OUR FUTURE.”
“Over a thousand friends in El Paso joined @BernieSanders and I on the first day of early voting. To the ultra-rich: Texas isn’t having it anymore. Change is coming. Go vote!” Casar · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Make Austin Affordable Again”
“I believe the Green New Deal is a costly mistake.” Peña · X post · Aug 1 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Casar | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 99% | 95% | $653 | Open ↗ |
| Greg Casar | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $27,043 | Open ↗ |
| Lauren Peña | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 4% | 5% | $1,786 | Open ↗ |
| Lauren Peña | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | $18,432 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Texas ballot
All 39 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll