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U.S. House · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Texas House, district 23
Brandon Herrera (Republican) against Katy Padilla Stout (Democrat).
Where they stand · 52 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Brandon HerreraestimateKaty Padilla Stoutestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedHerrera$3.1MStout$977kItemized, named donorsHerrera$109kStout$527kNamed donorsHerrera76Stout615Itemized from TexasHerrera71%Stout48%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Herrera | Kalshi | Republican wins | 56% | 57% | 57% | $418,665 | Open ↗ |
| Brandon Herrera | Polymarket | Republican wins | 58% | 59% | 60% | $76,890 | Open ↗ |
| Katy Padilla Stout | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 43% | 44% | 43% | $117,185 | Open ↗ |
| Katy Padilla Stout | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 41% | 42% | 43% | $56,347 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Texas ballot
All 39 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll