U.S. House · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Texas House, district 22

Trever Nehls (Republican) against Marquette Greene-Scott (Democrat).

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 34

94%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 31

5%party to win

Where they stand · 64 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Trever NehlsestimateMarquette Greene-Scottestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3431

64 pts

Immigration

4523

68 pts ▸

Federal budget, taxes and spending

2823

50 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedNehls

$311kGreene-Scott

$63kItemized, named donorsNehls

$129kGreene-Scott

$26kNamed donorsNehls

71Greene-Scott

48Itemized from TexasNehls

87%Greene-Scott

57%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“deport illegal aliens who violate our laws” Nehls · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗

“Tough on the issues. Clear on the facts. Focused on you.”

“Now is the time to pass universal healthcare.” Greene-Scott · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Trever Nehls	Kalshi	Republican wins	94%	96%	95%	$4,186	Open ↗
Trever Nehls	Polymarket	Republican wins	94%	95%	94%	$19,183	Open ↗
Marquette Greene-Scott	Kalshi	Democrat wins	4%	5%	3%	$880	Open ↗
Marquette Greene-Scott	Polymarket	Democrat wins	2%	5%	5%	$23,644	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Texas ballot

Senate · open seat

Governor

House · TX-1

House · TX-2

House · TX-3

House · TX-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll