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U.S. House · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Texas House, district 20
Joaquin Castro (Democrat, incumbent) against Edgardo Baez (Republican).
Where they stand · 54 points apart
Baez is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Joaquin CastrorecordEdgardo Baezestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCastro$586kBaez$67kItemized, named donorsCastro$372kBaez$16kNamed donorsCastro284Baez36Itemized from TexasCastro78%Baez92%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Laws have to be enforced!” Baez · X post · Jan 19 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Castro | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 97% | $547 | Open ↗ |
| Joaquin Castro | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 99% | 95% | $13,290 | Open ↗ |
| Edgardo Baez | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 5% | 4% | $1,457 | Open ↗ |
| Edgardo Baez | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 2% | $26,894 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Texas ballot
All 39 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll