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U.S. House · Texas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Texas House, district 16
Veronica Escobar (Democrat, incumbent) against Adam Bauman (Republican).
Where they stand · 66 points apart
Bauman is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Veronica EscobarrecordAdam Baumanestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedEscobar$1MBauman$3kItemized, named donorsEscobar$502kBauman$2kNamed donorsEscobar322Bauman3Itemized from TexasEscobar83%Bauman100%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“EL PASO'S FIGHTER”
“Texas - we can’t trust @GregAbbott_TX to hold data center developers accountable and protect us from the rising utility costs and environmental damage that they bring. Vote @GinaHinojosaTX” Escobar · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“Strong, Common Sense Leadership that will put El Paso FIRST in Washington, D.C”
“Biological men have no business competing in women's sports and should not be allowed to use the women's restroom.” Bauman · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Escobar | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 99% | $63 | Open ↗ |
| Veronica Escobar | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 98% | 97% | $14,803 | Open ↗ |
| Adam Bauman | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 5% | $1,057 | Open ↗ |
| Adam Bauman | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 5% | 3% | $12,701 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Texas ballot
All 39 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll