U.S. House · Tennessee · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Tennessee House, district 8

David Kustoff (Republican, incumbent) against Heidi Kuhn (Democrat).

Republican · incumbent · estimate Right 36

98%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 24

3%party to win

Where they stand · 60 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

David KustoffestimateHeidi Kuhnestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3624

60 pts

Civil rights, gender and religion

3523

57 pts ▸

Health care

4013

53 pts ▸

Federal budget, taxes and spending

1833

50 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedKustoff

$2.5MKuhn

$97kItemized, named donorsKustoff

$1.2MKuhn

$73kNamed donorsKustoff

526Kuhn

98Itemized from TennesseeKustoff

71%Kuhn

96%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“Shaking Up and Straightening Up Washington DC”

“The only solution now is to be tough on crime.” Kustoff · X post · Jun 15 · ↗

“Heidi will expand the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit” Kuhn · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
David Kustoff	Kalshi	Republican wins	96%	98%	96%	$5,107	Open ↗
David Kustoff	Polymarket	Republican wins	97%	99%	98%	$29,762	Open ↗
Heidi Kuhn	Kalshi	Democrat wins	2%	4%	5%	$4,839	Open ↗
Heidi Kuhn	Polymarket	Democrat wins	2%	3%	3%	$21,279	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Tennessee ballot

Senate

Governor · open seat

House · TN-1

House · TN-2

House · TN-3

House · TN-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll