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U.S. Senate · Oregon · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Oregon Senate
Jeff Merkley (Democrat / Working Families, incumbent) against David Brock Smith (Republican).
Where they stand · 58 points apart
Smith is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Jeff MerkleyrecordDavid Brock Smithestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMerkley$5.2MSmith$291kItemized, named donorsMerkley$2.7MSmith$146kNamed donorsMerkley5,168Smith173Itemized from OregonMerkley70%Smith93%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Merkley | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 98% | 99% | 98% | $7,085 | Open ↗ |
| Jeff Merkley | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 98% | 99% | 99% | $4,300 | Open ↗ |
| David Brock Smith | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 2% | 2% | $10,413 | Open ↗ |
| David Brock Smith | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 2% | 1% | $5,979 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Oregon ballot
All 7 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll