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U.S. House · Oregon · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Oregon House, district 4
Val Hoyle (Democrat / Working Families, incumbent) against Monique DeSpain (Republican / Libertarian).
Where they stand · 60 points apart
DeSpain is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Val HoylerecordMonique DeSpainestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedHoyle$1.6MDeSpain$893kItemized, named donorsHoyle$611kDeSpain$291kNamed donorsHoyle549DeSpain284Itemized from OregonHoyle52%DeSpain82%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Fighting for Working Families”
“Because of hard-working volunteers, this campaign has worked to elect Democrats up and down the ballot across the 4th district.” Hoyle · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“I will not support federal funding for soft-on-crime cities or cities that defund the police” DeSpain · Campaign site · Oct 19 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val Hoyle | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 94% | 96% | 97% | $948 | Open ↗ |
| Val Hoyle | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 94% | 97% | 95% | $15,636 | Open ↗ |
| Monique DeSpain | Kalshi | Republican wins | 3% | 6% | 3% | $1,160 | Open ↗ |
| Monique DeSpain | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 5% | 4% | $20,220 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Oregon ballot
All 7 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll