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U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out
New York House, district 7
Claire Valdez (Democrat / Working Families) against Melvin Rivera (Republican / Constitution).
Where they stand · 44 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Claire ValdezestimateMelvin Riveraestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedValdez$1.9MRivera—Itemized, named donorsValdez$989kRivera—Named donorsValdez1,015Rivera—Itemized from New YorkValdez66%Rivera—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“I'm an Assemblymember, union organizer and proud democratic socialist running for Congress to deliver for the working class.”
“Fight for a Federal Job Guarantee” Valdez · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
“REDEMPTION. RESPONSIBILITY. REAL OPPORTUNITY”
“Repeal the Taylor Law. Protect the right of workers to: Organize, Protest, Negotiate fair wages” Rivera · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Valdez | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 99% | 98% | $3 | Open ↗ |
| Claire Valdez | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 98% | $15,682 | Open ↗ |
| Melvin Rivera | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 4% | $477 | Open ↗ |
| Melvin Rivera | Polymarket | Republican wins | <1% | 1% | 1% | $15,633 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the New York ballot
All 26 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll