U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out

New York House, district 26

Tim Kennedy (Democrat, incumbent) against Dennis Hannon (Republican / Constitution).

Democrat · incumbent · estimate Left 28

97%party to win

vs.

Republican / Constitution · challenger · estimate Right 32

4%party to win

Where they stand · 60 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Tim KennedyestimateDennis Hannonestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

2832

60 pts

Civil rights, gender and religion

1843

60 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedKennedy

$2.7MHannon

—Itemized, named donorsKennedy

$1.8MHannon

—Named donorsKennedy

864Hannon

—Itemized from New YorkKennedy

86%Hannon

—

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“Let's Build Our Future Together”

“He supports a woman’s right to make her own health care decisions” Kennedy · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“Safer communities. Lower costs. Protecting kids.”

“No child is born into the wrong body” Hannon · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Tim Kennedy	Kalshi	Democrat wins	97%	98%	97%	$439	Open ↗
Tim Kennedy	Polymarket	Democrat wins	96%	97%	97%	$22,540	Open ↗
Dennis Hannon	Kalshi	Republican wins	2%	4%	3%	$421	Open ↗
Dennis Hannon	Polymarket	Republican wins	3%	4%	4%	$20,243	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the New York ballot

Governor

House · NY-1

House · NY-2

House · NY-3

House · NY-4

House · NY-5

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll