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U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out
New York House, district 22
John Mannion (Democrat / Working Families, incumbent) against Kailee Buller (Republican / Constitution).
Where they stand · 60 points apart
Buller is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
John MannionrecordKailee Bullerestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMannion$3.1MBuller$429kItemized, named donorsMannion$1.6MBuller$328kNamed donorsMannion1,444Buller242Itemized from New YorkMannion77%Buller36%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“"I've spent the last decade defending working families and farmers. This campaign will be about them. I'll work with anyone to lower costs, protect our communities, and bring real results to Central New York."”
“I believe that there should be some wind. There should be some solar. There should be nuclear.” Buller · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mannion | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 97% | 97% | $6,229 | Open ↗ |
| John Mannion | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 96% | $12,858 | Open ↗ |
| Kailee Buller | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 4% | $13,855 | Open ↗ |
| Kailee Buller | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 4% | 4% | $27,724 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the New York ballot
All 26 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll