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U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out
New York House, district 20
Paul Tonko (Democrat / Working Families, incumbent) against Ralph Ambrosio (Republican / Constitution).
Where they stand · 69 points apart
Ambrosio is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Paul TonkorecordRalph Ambrosioestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedTonko$1.2MAmbrosio$61kItemized, named donorsTonko$275kAmbrosio$34kNamed donorsTonko478Ambrosio64Itemized from New YorkTonko80%Ambrosio96%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“While Trump continues to blame everyone but himself for rising prices, American families continue to struggle under the costs of his reckless tariffs and war of choice with Iran.” Tonko · X post · Oct 14 · ↗
“calling for an immediate pivot away from the radical 'alternative energy crusade'” Ambrosio · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Tonko | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 99% | 98% | $1,380 | Open ↗ |
| Paul Tonko | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $21,527 | Open ↗ |
| Ralph Ambrosio | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | $598 | Open ↗ |
| Ralph Ambrosio | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 3% | 3% | $25,914 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the New York ballot
All 26 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll