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U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out
New York House, district 19
Josh Riley (Democrat / Working Families, incumbent) against Peter Oberacker (Republican / Constitution).
Where they stand · 29 points apart
Oberacker is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Josh RileyrecordPeter Oberackerestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedRiley$5.8MOberacker$1.4MItemized, named donorsRiley$3.6MOberacker$268kNamed donorsRiley2,777Oberacker366Itemized from New YorkRiley52%Oberacker62%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Thank you to Christine Heller of Cooperstown for speaking out and standing with us! Grateful for folks like Christine who are making their voices heard. Read more below ⬇️:” Riley · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“Building A Stronger New York, Together.”
“legislation including tax breaks for our farmers” Oberacker · X post · Jan 21 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Riley | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 94% | 96% | 96% | $7,978 | Open ↗ |
| Josh Riley | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 96% | 97% | $16,708 | Open ↗ |
| Peter Oberacker | Kalshi | Republican wins | 3% | 6% | 5% | $3,894 | Open ↗ |
| Peter Oberacker | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 5% | 4% | $19,388 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the New York ballot
All 26 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll