U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out

New York House, district 18

Pat Ryan (Democrat / Working Families, incumbent) against Jackie Auringer (Republican / Constitution).

Democrat / Working Families · incumbent · estimate Left 26

97%party to win

vs.

Republican / Constitution · challenger · estimate Rt-lean 14

5%party to win

Where they stand · 40 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Pat RyanestimateJackie Auringerestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

2614

40 pts

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

3335

68 pts ▸

Immigration

2833

60 pts ▸

Housing, transportation, technology and vice

1928

8 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedRyan

$5.3MAuringer

$153kItemized, named donorsRyan

$3.3MAuringer

$103kNamed donorsRyan

1,798Auringer

96Itemized from New YorkRyan

64%Auringer

73%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“committing to achieving 100% renewable energy by 2030” Ryan · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“Born Here. Built Here. Fighting for Here.”

“Auringer Calls on Pat Ryan to Support Stop Insider Trading Act” Auringer · X post · Jul 22 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Pat Ryan	Kalshi	Democrat wins	95%	97%	98%	$10,239	Open ↗
Pat Ryan	Polymarket	Democrat wins	95%	97%	97%	$35,067	Open ↗
Jackie Auringer	Kalshi	Republican wins	4%	4%	5%	$10,197	Open ↗
Jackie Auringer	Polymarket	Republican wins	3%	5%	5%	$11,141	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the New York ballot

Governor

House · NY-1

House · NY-2

House · NY-3

House · NY-4

House · NY-5

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll