U.S. House · New York · Nov 3 · 7 days out

New York House, district 17

Cait Conley (Democrat / Working Families) against Mike Lawler (Republican / Constitution, incumbent).

Cait Conley

Democrat / Working Families · challenger · estimate Left 32

58%party to win

vs.

Mike Lawler

Republican / Constitution · incumbent · estimate Right 26

42%party to win

Where they stand · 57 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Cait ConleyestimateMike Lawlerestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3226

57 pts

Immigration

4038

78 pts ▸

Housing, transportation, technology and vice

4328

70 pts ▸

Crime and justice

2543

68 pts ▸

Foreign policy, trade and defense

3328

60 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

2833

60 pts ▸

Federal budget, taxes and spending

2328

50 pts ▸

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

364

40 pts ▸

Guns

4520

25 pts ▸

Trade and industrial policy

3318

15 pts ▸

Business, finance and labor

1820

3 pts ▸

Money

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedConley

$9.7MLawler

$10MItemized, named donorsConley

$6.6MLawler

$3.1MNamed donorsConley

5,609Lawler

2,352Itemized from New YorkConley

57%Lawler

43%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

In their own words

Campaign sites and X

“Never Backs Down From a Fight.”

“Allowing everyone to opt in to a public insurance option, regardless of age” Conley · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗

“quadruple the SALT deduction cap to $40,000” Lawler · Campaign site · Invalid Date · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Cait Conley	Kalshi	Democrat wins	57%	58%	58%	$134,986	Open ↗
Cait Conley	Polymarket	Democrat wins	57%	58%	57%	$49,455	Open ↗
Mike Lawler	Kalshi	Republican wins	41%	42%	42%	$336,677	Open ↗
Mike Lawler	Polymarket	Republican wins	39%	41%	40%	$46,397	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the New York ballot

All 26 →

Governor

Hochul (D/WF) 94% · Blakeman (R/C/VA) 6%

House · NY-1

LaLota (R/C) 78% · Gallant (D) 21%

House · NY-2

Garbarino (R/C) 80% · Halpin (D/WF) 22%

House · NY-3

Suozzi (D) 90% · LiPetri (R/C) 12%

House · NY-4

Gillen (D) 92% · Driscoll (R/C) 9%

House · NY-5

Meeks (D) 97% · Marsh (R/Queens United) 1%

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll