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U.S. House · Minnesota · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Minnesota House, district 6
Tom Emmer (Republican, incumbent) against Doug Chapin (Democrat (DFL)).
Where they stand · 57 points apart
Chapin is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Tom EmmerrecordDoug Chapinestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedEmmer$10.7MChapin$691kItemized, named donorsEmmer$2.1MChapin$322kNamed donorsEmmer5,291Chapin619Itemized from MinnesotaEmmer11%Chapin85%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Standing for Our Midwest Values”
“"It never happens!" Yet it keeps happening nationwide. Americans deserve confidence in every election. Tell the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act, now!” Emmer · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“Let's elect a Member of Congress who works for us ALL.”
“I will fight to eliminate the cap on Social Security taxes” Chapin · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Emmer | Kalshi | Republican wins | 94% | 95% | 95% | $10,920 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Emmer | Polymarket | Republican wins | 94% | 97% | 97% | $32,584 | Open ↗ |
| Doug Chapin | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 5% | 6% | 6% | $16,414 | Open ↗ |
| Doug Chapin | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 3% | 5% | 4% | $67,261 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Minnesota ballot
All 9 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll