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U.S. House · Michigan · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Michigan House, district 7
William Lawrence (Democrat) against Tom Barrett (Republican, incumbent).
Where they stand · 66 points apart
Lawrence is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
William LawrenceestimateTom Barrettrecord
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedLawrence$3.7MBarrett$7.9MItemized, named donorsLawrence$2.5MBarrett$2.4MNamed donorsLawrence2,415Barrett3,459Itemized from MichiganLawrence36%Barrett22%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“a moratorium on new data center construction.” Lawrence · X post · Sep 9 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Lawrence | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 72% | 73% | 73% | $117,645 | Open ↗ |
| William Lawrence | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 71% | 73% | 71% | $40,118 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Barrett | Kalshi | Republican wins | 28% | 29% | 29% | $53,949 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Barrett | Polymarket | Republican wins | 28% | 29% | 30% | $26,106 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Michigan ballot
All 14 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll