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U.S. House · Michigan · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Michigan House, district 2
John Moolenaar (Republican, incumbent) against Ben Ambrose (Democrat).
Where they stand · 45 points apart
Ambrose is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
John MoolenaarrecordBen Ambroseestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMoolenaar$2MAmbrose$182kItemized, named donorsMoolenaar$1.1MAmbrose$118kNamed donorsMoolenaar550Ambrose110Itemized from MichiganMoolenaar74%Ambrose67%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Integrity. Commitment. Trust.”
“Protect and strengthen the Affordable Care Act” Ambrose · Campaign site · Invalid Date · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Moolenaar | Kalshi | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 97% | $6,205 | Open ↗ |
| John Moolenaar | Polymarket | Republican wins | 94% | 98% | 98% | $23,149 | Open ↗ |
| Ben Ambrose | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 2% | 6% | 3% | $3,714 | Open ↗ |
| Ben Ambrose | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 1% | 5% | 1% | $32,068 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Michigan ballot
All 14 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll