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U.S. House · Michigan · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Michigan House, district 6
Debbie Dingell (Democrat, incumbent) against Heather Smiley (Republican).
Where they stand · 63 points apart
Smiley is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Debbie DingellrecordHeather Smileyestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedDingell$1.5MSmiley—Itemized, named donorsDingell$379kSmiley—Named donorsDingell428Smiley—Itemized from MichiganDingell58%Smiley—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Working, Listening, and Delivering”
“Today is the last day it’s advised to send your absentee ballot in the mail to avoid delays. You can also take your ballot to your local dropbox or clerk before polls close on November 3rd. Find your local dropbox and clerk at” Dingell · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Protect family farmers” Smiley · X post · Feb 24 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debbie Dingell | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 95% | 98% | 99% | $1,012 | Open ↗ |
| Debbie Dingell | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 95% | $26,046 | Open ↗ |
| Heather Smiley | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 5% | 5% | $228 | Open ↗ |
| Heather Smiley | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 1% | $27,821 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Michigan ballot
All 14 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll