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U.S. House · Indiana · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Indiana House, district 8
Mark Messmer (Republican, incumbent) against Mary Allen (Democrat).
Where they stand · 47 points apart
Allen is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mark MessmerrecordMary Allenestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMessmer$1.4MAllen$467kItemized, named donorsMessmer$267kAllen$272kNamed donorsMessmer156Allen436Itemized from IndianaMessmer60%Allen97%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Happy National Farmers Day! 🌽🚜 Today and every day, I’m proud to stand with the hardworking Hoosier farmers who make Indiana and America strong!” Messmer · X post · Oct 12 · ↗
“One of us fighting for all of US!”
“Supporting U.S. jobs by removing corporate tax incentives that shift jobs overseas.” Allen · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Messmer | Kalshi | Republican wins | 94% | 96% | 95% | $4,411 | Open ↗ |
| Mark Messmer | Polymarket | Republican wins | 92% | 97% | 95% | $30,771 | Open ↗ |
| Mary Allen | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 4% | 6% | 5% | $9,487 | Open ↗ |
| Mary Allen | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 3% | 5% | 3% | $21,002 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Indiana ballot
All 8 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll