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U.S. House · Iowa · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Iowa House, district 4
Chris McGowan (Republican) against Dave Dawson (Democrat).
Where they stand · 42 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Chris McGowanestimateDave Dawsonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMcGowan$853kDawson$240kItemized, named donorsMcGowan$616kDawson$137kNamed donorsMcGowan274Dawson226Itemized from IowaMcGowan50%Dawson94%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“AMERICA FIRST, IOWA ALWAYS.”
“he’ll fight for lower taxes, fewer regulations, new markets and the pro-growth policies” McGowan · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
“Public Servant. Proven Leader.”
“protecting the Affordable Care Act from another round of repeal attempts.” Dawson · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris McGowan | Kalshi | Republican wins | 97% | 99% | 97% | $10,995 | Open ↗ |
| Chris McGowan | Polymarket | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 96% | $24,043 | Open ↗ |
| Dave Dawson | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | $5,979 | Open ↗ |
| Dave Dawson | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 1% | 4% | 1% | $43,286 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Iowa ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll