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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 9
Josh Harder (Democrat, incumbent) against John McBride (Republican).
Where they stand · 57 points apart
McBride is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Josh HarderrecordJohn McBrideestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedHarder$4.4MMcBride$76kItemized, named donorsHarder$2.7MMcBride$23kNamed donorsHarder1,757McBride27Itemized from CaliforniaHarder80%McBride66%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Momentum is growing for making it easier to build, especially housing and energy. What we need now is acceleration. I sat down with @DKThomp to talk about the Build America Caucus’ vision for delivering broad prosperity.” Harder · X post · Oct 16 · ↗
“Standing Strong For Truth and Freedom”
“Support for Local Law Enforcement - Stronger Southern Border” McBride · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Harder | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 99% | 99% | 98% | $5,788 | Open ↗ |
| Josh Harder | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 99% | 99% | 99% | $20,044 | Open ↗ |
| John McBride | Kalshi | Republican wins | <1% | 1% | 1% | $1,002 | Open ↗ |
| John McBride | Polymarket | Republican wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | $7,992 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll