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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 8
John Garamendi (Democrat, incumbent) against Rudy Recile (Republican).
Where they stand · 60 points apart
Recile is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
John GaramendirecordRudy Recileestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedGaramendi$559kRecile$20kItemized, named donorsGaramendi$137kRecile$8kNamed donorsGaramendi96Recile12Itemized from CaliforniaGaramendi74%Recile88%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Look to the future”
“Today I joined @RepZoeLofgren and our California Congressional colleagues in denouncing President Donald Trump's attack against Los Angeles and San Diego.” Garamendi · X post · Oct 7 · ↗
“Ang Inyong Lingkod (At Your Service)”
“Money should follow the child... Parents should have a choice where their children are taught.” Recile · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Garamendi | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 95% | $1,405 | Open ↗ |
| John Garamendi | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 97% | 95% | $14,452 | Open ↗ |
| Rudy Recile | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 2% | $1,161 | Open ↗ |
| Rudy Recile | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 3% | $42,829 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll