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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 51
Sara Jacobs (Democrat, incumbent) against Richard Cabrera (Republican).
Where they stand · 67 points apart
Cabrera is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Sara JacobsrecordRichard Cabreraestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedJacobs$1.8MCabrera—Itemized, named donorsJacobs$304kCabrera—Named donorsJacobs377Cabrera—Itemized from CaliforniaJacobs76%Cabrera—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“So great to be in Illinois to meet up with @Melissabeanil08, @danielbiss, @pattyforil, and @Donna4Congress! Chicago area voters: Make sure you vote for them by November 3rd so I can call them my colleagues for real!” Jacobs · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Back the blue, enforce laws” Cabrera · X post · Jun 20 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Jacobs | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $823 | Open ↗ |
| Sara Jacobs | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 98% | 98% | $18,820 | Open ↗ |
| Richard Cabrera | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 3% | 2% | $162 | Open ↗ |
| Richard Cabrera | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 3% | $16,034 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll