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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 49
Mike Levin (Democrat, incumbent) against Armen Kurdian (Republican).
Where they stand · 54 points apart
Kurdian is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mike LevinrecordArmen Kurdianestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedLevin$3.5MKurdian$156kItemized, named donorsLevin$2.5MKurdian$126kNamed donorsLevin1,839Kurdian118Itemized from CaliforniaLevin82%Kurdian76%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Always Ready for the Fights That Matter.”
“LET'S MAKE LIFE AFFORDABLE”
“how about making those 530A savings accounts free of state tax?” Kurdian · X post · Aug 21 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Levin | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 97% | $15,351 | Open ↗ |
| Mike Levin | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 97% | 97% | $19,944 | Open ↗ |
| Armen Kurdian | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 2% | $774 | Open ↗ |
| Armen Kurdian | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 3% | 3% | $8,719 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll