← All races
U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 46
Lou Correa (Democrat, incumbent) against David Pan (Republican).
Where they stand · 42 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Lou CorreaestimateDavid Panestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCorrea$1.5MPan$104kItemized, named donorsCorrea$449kPan$84kNamed donorsCorrea378Pan90Itemized from CaliforniaCorrea72%Pan82%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“The leadership & representation Orange County needs”
“ICE is out of control and we need guardrails NOW.” Correa · X post · Oct 15 · ↗
“We need to support free markets. Laws that keep prices down usually have unintended consequences.” Pan · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Correa | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $336 | Open ↗ |
| Lou Correa | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 97% | 97% | $4,933 | Open ↗ |
| David Pan | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 3% | 2% | $1,173 | Open ↗ |
| David Pan | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 4% | 3% | $46,433 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll