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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 45
Derek Tran (Democrat, incumbent) against Chuong Vo (Republican).
Where they stand · 48 points apart
Vo is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Derek TranrecordChuong Voestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedTran$5.8MVo$844kItemized, named donorsTran$3.1MVo$562kNamed donorsTran2,595Vo523Itemized from CaliforniaTran63%Vo86%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“What occurred on the USS Lincoln is despicable, and tells us: Pete Hegseth and the rest of the Trump Administration are unfit to lead.” Tran · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“SAFETY. AFFORDABILITY. ACCOUNTABILITY.”
“keep U.S. troops out of open-ended foreign conflicts” Vo · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Tran | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 93% | 93% | 93% | $33,402 | Open ↗ |
| Derek Tran | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 93% | 95% | 95% | $21,688 | Open ↗ |
| Chuong Vo | Kalshi | Republican wins | 7% | 8% | 7% | $109,701 | Open ↗ |
| Chuong Vo | Polymarket | Republican wins | 6% | 7% | 7% | $33,116 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll