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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 43
Maxine Waters (Democrat, incumbent) against Christian Morales (Republican).
Where they stand · 56 points apart
Morales is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Maxine WatersrecordChristian Moralesestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedWaters$1MMorales—Itemized, named donorsWaters$360kMorales—Named donorsWaters214Morales—Itemized from CaliforniaWaters53%Morales—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“REPRESENTING THE PEOPLE'S VOICES IN CONGRESS ADVOCATING FOR THE WORKING CLASS”
“Cut taxes and reduce unnecessary regulations.” Morales · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxine Waters | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 97% | $1,113 | Open ↗ |
| Maxine Waters | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 96% | $11,150 | Open ↗ |
| Christian Morales | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 3% | 2% | $1,712 | Open ↗ |
| Christian Morales | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 4% | 5% | $22,087 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll