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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 38
Hilda Solis (Democrat) against Pedro Casas (Republican).
Where they stand · 45 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Hilda SolisestimatePedro Casasestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedSolis$1.4MCasas—Itemized, named donorsSolis$1.1MCasas—Named donorsSolis718Casas—Itemized from CaliforniaSolis93%Casas—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilda Solis | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 99% | $1,343 | Open ↗ |
| Hilda Solis | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 99% | 98% | $33,690 | Open ↗ |
| Pedro Casas | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | $1,107 | Open ↗ |
| Pedro Casas | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 1% | $32,223 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll