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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 36
Ted Lieu (Democrat, incumbent) against Houston Brignano (Republican).
Where they stand · 53 points apart
Brignano is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Ted LieurecordHouston Brignanoestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedLieu$2.2MBrignano$12kItemized, named donorsLieu$995kBrignano$10kNamed donorsLieu680Brignano10Itemized from CaliforniaLieu46%Brignano99%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Lieu | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 99% | 99% | $480 | Open ↗ |
| Ted Lieu | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 94% | 98% | 96% | $6,331 | Open ↗ |
| Houston Brignano | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 4% | 4% | $4,580 | Open ↗ |
| Houston Brignano | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 4% | $79,836 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll