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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 32
Brad Sherman (Democrat, incumbent) against Larry Thompson (Republican).
Where they stand · 64 points apart
Thompson is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Brad ShermanrecordLarry Thompsonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedSherman$2.8MThompson$53kItemized, named donorsSherman$1.5MThompson$8kNamed donorsSherman867Thompson7Itemized from CaliforniaSherman71%Thompson67%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Sherman | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $923 | Open ↗ |
| Brad Sherman | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 99% | 97% | $13,107 | Open ↗ |
| Larry Thompson | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 5% | $1,381 | Open ↗ |
| Larry Thompson | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 6% | $16,324 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll