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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 24
Salud Carbajal (Democrat, incumbent) against Bob Smith (Republican).
Where they stand · 60 points apart
Smith is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Salud CarbajalrecordBob Smithestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCarbajal$1.9MSmith$329kItemized, named donorsCarbajal$1MSmith$243kNamed donorsCarbajal372Smith201Itemized from CaliforniaCarbajal88%Smith83%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“RepresentingCentral Coast Values”
“Gas prices are up 40% from last year in Santa Maria alone. Enough is enough. I'm pushing to end Trump's illegal war in Iran and bring down prices at the pump.” Carbajal · X post · Oct 17 · ↗
“Use renewables where they make sense” Smith · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salud Carbajal | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 98% | 99% | 98% | $3,971 | Open ↗ |
| Salud Carbajal | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $33,885 | Open ↗ |
| Bob Smith | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 2% | 2% | $10,115 | Open ↗ |
| Bob Smith | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 2% | $18,559 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll