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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 21
Jim Costa (Democrat, incumbent) against Kyle Kirkland (Republican).
Where they stand · 35 points apart
Kirkland is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Jim CostarecordKyle Kirklandestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCosta$1.6MKirkland$457kItemized, named donorsCosta$517kKirkland$226kNamed donorsCosta314Kirkland117Itemized from CaliforniaCosta76%Kirkland74%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Keeping Our Valley Strong”
“Fighting the High Cost of Living for Central Valley Families”
“ending over-regulation and mismanagement” Kirkland · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Costa | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 93% | 94% | 94% | $13,519 | Open ↗ |
| Jim Costa | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 94% | 96% | 95% | $20,136 | Open ↗ |
| Kyle Kirkland | Kalshi | Republican wins | 5% | 7% | 7% | $27,046 | Open ↗ |
| Kyle Kirkland | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 6% | 2% | $23,128 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll