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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 18
Zoe Lofgren (Democrat, incumbent) against Shane Lewis (Republican).
Where they stand · 61 points apart
Lewis is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Zoe LofgrenrecordShane Lewisestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedLofgren$2MLewis$115kItemized, named donorsLofgren$714kLewis$40kNamed donorsLofgren840Lewis31Itemized from CaliforniaLofgren73%Lewis52%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Just one more week left to submit entries for the Congressional App Challenge! I’m looking forward to reviewing all the innovative projects our brilliant #CA18 students have been working on. Learn more at” Lofgren · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“Marine Corps Veteran. Community Focused. Conservative.”
“Reserve Census-derived federal funding allocations primarily for American citizens.” Lewis · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe Lofgren | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 99% | 95% | $339 | Open ↗ |
| Zoe Lofgren | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 98% | 99% | 97% | $30,786 | Open ↗ |
| Shane Lewis | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 4% | 10% | $1,024 | Open ↗ |
| Shane Lewis | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 3% | 2% | $19,370 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll