← All races
U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 16
Sam Liccardo (Democrat, incumbent) against Peter Soule (Republican).
Where they stand · 59 points apart
Soule is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Sam LiccardorecordPeter Souleestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedLiccardo$3.8MSoule$4kItemized, named donorsLiccardo$1.5MSoule$3kNamed donorsLiccardo714Soule3Itemized from CaliforniaLiccardo77%Soule100%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“The issues that matter:”
“Trump has apparently invented single-payer healthcare…” Liccardo · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Leading the charge for a better future for the Golden State”
“Enable parents to send their children to their school of choice.” Soule · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Liccardo | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 98% | $9,415 | Open ↗ |
| Sam Liccardo | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 98% | $53,142 | Open ↗ |
| Peter Soule | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 4% | $692 | Open ↗ |
| Peter Soule | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 2% | 2% | $54,820 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll