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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 14
Aisha Wahab (Democrat, incumbent) against Melissa Hernandez (Democrat).
Where they stand · 11 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Aisha WahabestimateMelissa Hernandezestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedWahab$1.1MHernandez$2.1MItemized, named donorsWahab$675kHernandez$1.8MNamed donorsWahab555Hernandez1,071Itemized from CaliforniaWahab83%Hernandez56%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Invest in renewable energy infrastructure. Reduce dependence on fossil fuels.” Wahab · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
“A Proven Leader for the East Bay”
“mental health crisis response so police are not the only option when someone is in distress” Hernandez · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisha Wahab | Kalshi | this candidate | 91% | 92% | 91% | $33,360 | Open ↗ |
| Aisha Wahab | Polymarket | this candidate | 90% | 92% | 92% | $21,396 | Open ↗ |
| Melissa Hernandez | Kalshi | this candidate | 8% | 10% | 10% | $36,318 | Open ↗ |
| Melissa Hernandez | Polymarket | this candidate | 5% | 9% | 6% | $18,235 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll