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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 13
Adam Gray (Democrat, incumbent) against Kevin Lincoln (Republican).
Where they stand · 44 points apart
Lincoln is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Adam GrayrecordKevin Lincolnestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedGray$5.1MLincoln$2.9MItemized, named donorsGray$2.3MLincoln$1MNamed donorsGray1,737Lincoln1,199Itemized from CaliforniaGray51%Lincoln64%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Putting the Valley First”
“Put our Valley First.”
“As Mayor, I balanced the Budget without raising taxes” Lincoln · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gray | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 92% | 94% | 93% | $23,076 | Open ↗ |
| Adam Gray | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 96% | 97% | $30,915 | Open ↗ |
| Kevin Lincoln | Kalshi | Republican wins | 5% | 7% | 7% | $24,439 | Open ↗ |
| Kevin Lincoln | Polymarket | Republican wins | 4% | 5% | 5% | $18,713 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll