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U.S. House · California · Nov 3 · 7 days out
California House, district 10
Mark DeSaulnier (Democrat, incumbent) against Jeff Frese (Republican).
Where they stand · 74 points apart
Frese is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mark DeSaulnierrecordJeff Freseestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedDeSaulnier$701kFrese—Itemized, named donorsDeSaulnier$260kFrese—Named donorsDeSaulnier257Frese—Itemized from CaliforniaDeSaulnier90%Frese—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“It’s a big night for Bay Area sports. Good luck to the @valkyries in their 2nd game of the WNBA finals and to the @49ers on Monday Night Football. Let’s bring home the win!” DeSaulnier · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“Make California affordable. Better schools. Safer streets. Common sense.”
“Back the police. Prosecute crime.” Frese · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark DeSaulnier | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $1,624 | Open ↗ |
| Mark DeSaulnier | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 98% | 96% | $14,441 | Open ↗ |
| Jeff Frese | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 4% | 2% | $900 | Open ↗ |
| Jeff Frese | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 4% | 6% | $14,347 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the California ballot
All 52 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll