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U.S. Senate · Arkansas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Arkansas Senate
Tom Cotton (Republican, incumbent) against Hallie Shoffner (Democrat).
Where they stand · 42 points apart
Shoffner is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Tom CottonrecordHallie Shoffnerestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCotton$7MShoffner$3.7MItemized, named donorsCotton$2.8MShoffner$2.4MNamed donorsCotton4,011Shoffner3,555Itemized from ArkansasCotton17%Shoffner80%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“A strong military and billions in investments for Arkansas. A secure border and a safer Arkansas. Lower taxes for every Arkansan.”
“Pine Bluff Arsenal plays a vital role in producing the munitions that keep Americans safe. The new access control point will ensure it can continue doing so for decades to come.” Cotton · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Let's Take the Fight to washington”
“better voluntary conservation programs (better funding and small farm support in EQIP)” Shoffner · X post · Aug 25 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | Kalshi | Republican wins | 94% | 94% | 94% | $108,187 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Cotton | Polymarket | Republican wins | 95% | 96% | 95% | $55,311 | Open ↗ |
| Hallie Shoffner | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 6% | 6% | 6% | $273,478 | Open ↗ |
| Hallie Shoffner | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 5% | 6% | 6% | $48,007 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Arkansas ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll