U.S. House · Arkansas · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Arkansas House, district 2

French Hill (Republican, incumbent) against Chris Jones (Democrat).

Republican · incumbent · estimate Right 29

82%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate L-lean 21

21%party to win

Where they stand · 51 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

French HillestimateChris Jonesestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

2921

51 pts

Federal budget, taxes and spending

3318

50 pts ▸

Crime and justice

2820

48 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

2323

45 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedHill

$5MJones

$1.8MItemized, named donorsHill

$2MJones

$1.2MNamed donorsHill

1,161Jones

1,630Itemized from ArkansasHill

39%Jones

78%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“Promises Made. Promises Kept.”

“French backed the Secure the Border Act” Hill · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“A Bigger Table. A Brighter Future.”

“Arkansans don’t need more blank checks for endless wars.” Jones · X post · Jul 24 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
French Hill	Kalshi	Republican wins	80%	82%	82%	$43,485	Open ↗
French Hill	Polymarket	Republican wins	79%	81%	81%	$30,739	Open ↗
Chris Jones	Kalshi	Democrat wins	19%	20%	21%	$64,952	Open ↗
Chris Jones	Polymarket	Democrat wins	18%	20%	19%	$51,452	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Arkansas ballot

Senate

Governor

House · AR-1

House · AR-3

House · AR-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll