Seth Bodnar
Candidate · U.S. Senate · Montana
Independent · Challenger8%
To win · Kalshi, Oct 27, 2026
▼ 9 pts since April
Running for
OfficeU.S. Senate
SeatMontana, statewide
AgainstKurt Alme (R)
ElectionNov 3, 2026 · 7 days
StandingChallenger
BallotDirectory listing
Links
Running statewide
Montana · Senate seat
Roster checked Sep 29, 2026. Listed as: Ex-University of Montana President, Ex-GE Executive & Iraq War Veteran.
The campaign · in their wordssethformontana.com · read Oct 19, 2026 ↗
“Lower costs. Defend our freedoms. End corruption.”
Plank 1 · campaign site
End the Costly and Unauthorized War in Iran
Plank 2 · campaign site
Stop Reckless Tariffs Driving Up Prices
Plank 3 · campaign site
Lower Health Care, Housing, and Energy Costs
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's own site, unedited. 91 pages read.
Where They Stand
Statement estimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words, on the same scale as a member’s record.
Overall
from 7 statements
Left
Issue · by emphasisLeftCenterRightReadTalks about
Odds over time · Kalshi daily closes
Alme (R) — 92%Bodnar (I) — 8%Bankhead (D) — 2%
The race · Montana Senate · 7 days out
Kurt AlmeRepublican · challenger · Right 39 from statements92%Seth BodnarIndependent · challenger · Left 24 from statements8%3924
63 points apart · hollow = estimate, solid = record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
$4.7M
Raised
$4.5M
From individuals
Named donors · gifts over $200
$3.7M
Itemized · 85% of individual
2,671
Named donors
36%
Itemized from Montana
By occupation
$1.1M
$667k
$253k
$134k
$126k
By state
$1.3M
$698k
$333k
$214k
$180k
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“We need to invest in our public lands, not dismantle them.”
“I'll fight to protect these places every single day in the Senate.”
“a coverage option for every American without losing choice or competition”
On the ballot with them · Montana, Nov 3, 2026
MT-1 · open seat
Aaron Flint (R) · 56%
vs. Sam Forstag (D) · 45%
MT-2
Troy Downing (R) · 97%
vs. Brian Miller (D) · 3%
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll
Seth Bodnar
Candidate · U.S. Senate · Montana
Independent · Challenger8%
To win · Kalshi
▼ 9 pts since April
7
Days to Nov 3
vs. Alme (R)
The campaign · in their wordsRead Oct 19, 2026 ↗
“Lower costs. Defend our freedoms. End corruption.”
Plank 1
End the Costly and Unauthorized War in Iran
Plank 2
Stop Reckless Tariffs Driving Up Prices
Plank 3
Lower Health Care, Housing, and Energy Costs
Page titles and first lines from the campaign's site, unedited · sethformontana.com
Where They Stand
EstimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words.
Issue · by emphasisRead · talks about
Energy and landLeft 36
Left, 36 points from center
Health careLeans left
Leans left
Crime and justiceL-lean 15
L-lean, 15 points from center
GunsRight 28
Right, 28 points from center
Housing and techLeft 28
Left, 28 points from center
ImmigrationMixed
Mixed
Civil rightsL-lean 18
L-lean, 18 points from center
EducationLeans left
Leans left
Budget and taxesL-lean 13
L-lean, 13 points from center
TradeL-lean 10
L-lean, 10 points from center
Odds over time · Kalshi
Alme 92%Bodnar 8%Bankhead 2%
The race · MT Senate · 7 days out
Kurt AlmeRepublican · challenger · Right 39 from statements92%Seth BodnarIndependent · challenger · Left 24 from statements8%3924
Hollow = estimate from statements · solid = voting record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
Raised, 2026
From individuals
Itemized · 85% of individual
Named donors
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“We need to invest in our public lands, not dismantle them.”
“I'll fight to protect these places every single day in the Senate.”
“a coverage option for every American without losing choice or competition”
On the ballot with them · Montana
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll