U.S. House · Montana · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Montana House, district 1

Aaron Flint (Republican) against Sam Forstag (Democrat).

Aaron Flint

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 38

56%party to win

vs.

Sam Forstag

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 36

45%party to win

Where they stand · 73 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Aaron FlintestimateSam Forstagestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3836

73 pts

Federal budget, taxes and spending

4337

79 pts ▸

Immigration

4523

68 pts ▸

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

3433

66 pts ▸

Crime and justice

2933

62 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

2928

56 pts ▸

Trade and industrial policy

2333

10 pts ▸

Money

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedFlint

$2.6MForstag

$3.7MItemized, named donorsFlint

$1.3MForstag

$2MNamed donorsFlint

1,319Forstag

2,062Itemized from MontanaFlint

52%Forstag

32%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

In their own words

Campaign sites and X

“spoken out in support of Sen. @TimSheehyMT ‘s crackdown on H1Bs.” Flint · X post · Oct 20 · ↗

“For Montana. For all of us.”

“Enact a Billionaire Tax of 5% on fortunes over $1 billion.” Forstag · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Aaron Flint	Kalshi	Republican wins	55%	56%	56%	$327,615	Open ↗
Aaron Flint	Polymarket	Republican wins	54%	56%	56%	$61,650	Open ↗
Sam Forstag	Kalshi	Democrat wins	44%	45%	45%	$378,977	Open ↗
Sam Forstag	Polymarket	Democrat wins	45%	47%	47%	$84,389	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Montana ballot

Senate · open seat

Alme (R) 92% · Bodnar (I) 8%

House · MT-2

Downing (R) 97% · Miller (D) 3%

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll