Kurt Alme
Candidate · U.S. Senate · Montana
Republican · Challenger92%
Party to win · Kalshi, Oct 27, 2026
▲ 13 pts since April
Running for
OfficeU.S. Senate
SeatMontana, statewide
AgainstSeth Bodnar (I)
ElectionNov 3, 2026 · 7 days
StandingChallenger
BallotDirectory listing
Links
Running statewide
Montana · Senate seat
Roster checked Sep 29, 2026. Listed as: Ex-US Attorney.
Where They Stand
Statement estimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words, on the same scale as a member’s record.
Overall
from 5 statements
Right
Issue · by emphasisLeftCenterRightReadTalks about
Odds over time · Kalshi daily closes
Alme (R) — 92%Bodnar (I) — 8%Bankhead (D) — 2%
The race · Montana Senate · 7 days out
Kurt AlmeRepublican · challenger · Right 39 from statements92%
Seth BodnarIndependent · challenger · Left 24 from statements8%3924
63 points apart · hollow = estimate, solid = record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
$2.9M
Raised
$1.6M
From individuals
Named donors · gifts over $200
$1.4M
Itemized · 89% of individual
885
Named donors
45%
Itemized from Montana
By occupation
$334k
$121k
$87k
$48k
$40k
By state
$639k
$100k
$85k
$82k
$56k
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“We Back the Blue and lock up violent criminals!”
“In Montana, we don’t defund the police — we back the blue”
“Lower Taxes and Less Red Tape = Bigger Paychecks and More Jobs.”
On the ballot with them · Montana, Nov 3, 2026
MT-1 · open seat
Aaron Flint (R) · 56%
vs. Sam Forstag (D) · 45%
MT-2
Troy Downing (R) · 97%
vs. Brian Miller (D) · 3%
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll
Kurt Alme
Candidate · U.S. Senate · Montana
Republican · Challenger92%
Party to win · Kalshi
▲ 13 pts since April
7
Days to Nov 3
vs. Bodnar (I)
Where They Stand
EstimateNo votes yet, so this is read from the campaign’s own words.
Issue · by emphasisRead · talks about
Budget and taxesRight 43
Right, 43 points from center
Crime and justiceRight 38
Right, 38 points from center
ImmigrationRight 35
Right, 35 points from center
Energy and landMixed
Mixed
Business and laborRight 37
Right, 37 points from center
GunsRight 33
Right, 33 points from center
Civil rightsRight 30
Right, 30 points from center
Housing and techRt-lean 18
Rt-lean, 18 points from center
Odds over time · Kalshi
Alme 92%Bodnar 8%Bankhead 2%
The race · MT Senate · 7 days out
Kurt AlmeRepublican · challenger · Right 39 from statements92%Seth BodnarIndependent · challenger · Left 24 from statements8%3924
Hollow = estimate from statements · solid = voting record
Money · FEC through Sep 30, 2026
Raised, 2026
From individuals
Itemized · 89% of individual
Named donors
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
“We Back the Blue and lock up violent criminals!”
“In Montana, we don’t defund the police — we back the blue”
“Lower Taxes and Less Red Tape = Bigger Paychecks and More Jobs.”
On the ballot with them · Montana
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll