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U.S. Senate · Montana · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Montana Senate
Kurt Alme (Republican) against Seth Bodnar (Independent). Alme is up 13 points on the markets since April.
Also running
Where they stand · 63 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Kurt AlmeestimateSeth Bodnarestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedAlme$2.9MBodnar$4.7MItemized, named donorsAlme$1.4MBodnar$3.7MNamed donorsAlme885Bodnar2,671Itemized from MontanaAlme45%Bodnar36%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 5
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | Kalshi | Republican wins | 92% | 92% | 92% | $463,397 | Open ↗ |
| Kurt Alme | Polymarket | Republican wins | 91% | 93% | 91% | $118,808 | Open ↗ |
| Seth Bodnar | Kalshi | this candidate | 8% | 8% | 8% | $460,238 | Open ↗ |
| Alani Bankhead | Kalshi | Democrat wins | <1% | 1% | 2% | $190,027 | Open ↗ |
| Alani Bankhead | Polymarket | Democrat wins | <1% | <1% | 2% | $50,327 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Montana ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll