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U.S. House · Montana · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Montana House, district 2
Troy Downing (Republican, incumbent) against Brian Miller (Democrat).
Where they stand · 59 points apart
Miller is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Troy DowningrecordBrian Millerestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedDowning$2.7MMiller$31kItemized, named donorsDowning$928kMiller$6kNamed donorsDowning1,201Miller13Itemized from MontanaDowning30%Miller95%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Downing | Kalshi | Republican wins | 96% | 97% | 97% | $3,758 | Open ↗ |
| Troy Downing | Polymarket | Republican wins | 97% | 98% | 97% | $27,143 | Open ↗ |
| Brian Miller | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | $4,311 | Open ↗ |
| Brian Miller | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 2% | 3% | 3% | $42,846 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Montana ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll