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U.S. House · Wisconsin · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Wisconsin House, district 4
Gwen Moore (Democrat, incumbent) against Tim Rogers (Republican).
Where they stand · 70 points apart
Rogers is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Gwen MoorerecordTim Rogersestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMoore$1.3MRogers—Itemized, named donorsMoore$306kRogers—Named donorsMoore337Rogers—Itemized from WisconsinMoore35%Rogers—
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwen Moore | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 95% | 98% | 99% | $465 | Open ↗ |
| Gwen Moore | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 94% | 97% | 96% | $14,608 | Open ↗ |
| Tim Rogers | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 5% | 5% | $820 | Open ↗ |
| Tim Rogers | Polymarket | Republican wins | 3% | 6% | 1% | $22,827 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Wisconsin ballot
All 8 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll