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U.S. House · Washington · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Washington House, district 9
Adam Smith (Democrat, incumbent) against Doug Basler (Republican).
Where they stand · 56 points apart
Basler is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Adam SmithrecordDoug Baslerestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedSmith$2.1MBasler$33kItemized, named donorsSmith$1.3MBasler$17kNamed donorsSmith1,007Basler16Itemized from WashingtonSmith45%Basler100%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“" I'm fighting to rebuild our representative democracy that Trump has tried to tear down, restore accountability, and lower the cost of everyday life by making sure our government delivers real results for working people."”
“Thank you to @IAM_Union, @IAM751, IAM District W24, and SPEEA/IFPTE Local 2001 for your endorsement of this bill, and your commitment to building safe aircrafts for passengers everywhere. (2/2)” Smith · X post · Aug 30 · ↗
“Taxes and regulations keep piling up.” Basler · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Smith | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 99% | $14,643 | Open ↗ |
| Adam Smith | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 96% | $16,017 | Open ↗ |
| Doug Basler | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 3% | 2% | $3,345 | Open ↗ |
| Doug Basler | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 2% | 2% | $39,866 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Washington ballot
All 9 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll