← All races
U.S. House · Washington · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Washington House, district 5
Michael Baumgartner (Republican) against Carmela Conroy (Democrat).
Where they stand · 45 points apart
Conroy is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Michael BaumgartnerrecordCarmela Conroyestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedBaumgartner$2.1MConroy$723kItemized, named donorsBaumgartner$1.3MConroy$508kNamed donorsBaumgartner1,172Conroy623Itemized from WashingtonBaumgartner82%Conroy90%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner | Kalshi | Republican wins | 85% | 86% | 86% | $93,432 | Open ↗ |
| Michael Baumgartner | Polymarket | Republican wins | 83% | 84% | 85% | $34,877 | Open ↗ |
| Carmela Conroy | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 15% | 16% | 16% | $71,681 | Open ↗ |
| Carmela Conroy | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 16% | 17% | 16% | $71,229 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Washington ballot
All 9 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll