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U.S. House · Pennsylvania · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Pennsylvania House, district 16
Mike Kelly (Republican, incumbent) against Justin Wagner (Democrat).
Where they stand · 53 points apart
Wagner is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mike KellyrecordJustin Wagnerestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedKelly$1.4MWagner$223kItemized, named donorsKelly$322kWagner$148kNamed donorsKelly216Wagner173Itemized from PennsylvaniaKelly26%Wagner89%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Important news for Pennsylvania seniors: Medicare Open Enrollment kicked off this week! Open Enrollment runs from October 15-December 7. Learn more:” Kelly · X post · Oct 16 · ↗
“I support a strong federal guarantee of the right to choose” Wagner · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Kelly | Kalshi | Republican wins | 93% | 95% | 95% | $4,554 | Open ↗ |
| Mike Kelly | Polymarket | Republican wins | 94% | 95% | 95% | $56,260 | Open ↗ |
| Justin Wagner | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 6% | 7% | 7% | $9,537 | Open ↗ |
| Justin Wagner | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 4% | 6% | 6% | $33,377 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Pennsylvania ballot
All 17 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll