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U.S. House · Pennsylvania · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Pennsylvania House, district 4
Madeleine Dean (Democrat, incumbent) against Aurora Stuski (Republican).
Where they stand · 52 points apart
Stuski is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Madeleine DeanrecordAurora Stuskiestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedDean$1.9MStuski$9kItemized, named donorsDean$699kStuski$6kNamed donorsDean744Stuski16Itemized from PennsylvaniaDean81%Stuski100%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Ukraine is our ally, yet this administration's actions suggest otherwise. We must stand with the people of Ukraine in their fight for sovereignty against Russia’s illegal, brutal invasion.” Dean · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“Putting People First in PA-04”
“Protecting Our Children: Human Trafficking, Artificial Intelligence, and the Responsibility to Act” Stuski · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Dean | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 98% | $1,672 | Open ↗ |
| Madeleine Dean | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 99% | 95% | $6,759 | Open ↗ |
| Aurora Stuski | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 4% | 5% | $2,452 | Open ↗ |
| Aurora Stuski | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 4% | 4% | $15,175 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Pennsylvania ballot
All 17 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll